Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 25.752771 27.375170 29.107281 31.104677 33.357971 35.837593 38.795594
2025-12-07 23.325637 25.456629 27.844353 30.751018 34.241040 38.361373 43.697531
2025-12-14 21.325967 23.614954 26.250244 29.561033 33.689402 38.785966 45.761211
2025-12-21 20.361687 22.846268 25.778874 29.574179 34.483395 40.822200 50.016805
2025-12-28 19.755676 22.429324 25.657029 29.950726 35.702097 43.464939 55.423701
2026-01-04 18.839475 21.560059 24.895221 29.417358 35.626976 44.284893 58.250011
2026-01-11 18.499105 21.375306 24.967836 29.955650 37.023768 47.305402 64.961733
2026-01-18 18.082791 21.062353 24.842896 30.199005 38.000816 49.792044 71.277097
2026-01-25 17.434286 20.414746 24.236112 29.724358 37.871017 50.519125 74.587674
2026-02-01 16.816291 19.778385 23.609635 29.176060 37.573991 50.923316 77.343951
2026-02-08 16.028421 18.889866 22.605830 28.033632 36.284561 49.546974 76.298014
2026-02-15 15.844994 18.792033 22.667717 28.425273 37.392178 52.338723 84.476354
2026-02-22 15.411701 18.403470 22.392360 28.429673 38.092464 54.892568 93.959280
2026-03-01 14.908582 17.903206 21.941610 28.150469 38.323048 56.680674 102.618662
2026-03-08 14.219282 17.117479 21.045397 27.126423 37.194563 55.675949 103.570481
2026-03-15 13.899889 16.824994 20.833933 27.138441 37.830178 58.254407 115.921685
2026-03-22 13.697065 16.682447 20.826263 27.461516 39.035810 62.242265 135.551808
2026-03-29 13.288123 16.234813 20.351224 27.003586 38.778674 63.005405 144.608702
2026-04-05 13.159389 16.175660 20.442684 27.465760 40.269721 68.068178 176.276965
2026-04-12 12.971408 16.023404 20.385519 27.674394 41.298021 72.301776 211.337489
2026-04-19 12.638122 15.650665 19.978883 27.267290 41.067427 73.272211 230.108509
2026-04-26 12.307148 15.271500 19.548481 26.796095 40.665549 73.718965 246.915412
2026-05-03 11.864221 14.719299 18.837100 25.811122 39.144546 70.861420 235.951266